Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Porto · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
FC Porto are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Malmo FF are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Porto hold a 15.8-point power-rating edge (49.6 v 33.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 61.3% in the UEFA Europa League, while FC Porto holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
FC Porto
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
FC Porto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80