Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
FC Porto are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while AS Roma are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and AS Roma hold a 12.1-point power-rating edge (49.6 v 61.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.0% in the UEFA Europa League, while AS Roma holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00