FC Porto Bvs
União de Leiria
COMPLETEDPortugal · Segunda Liga · 10/25/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União de Leiria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Porto B 1-1 União de Leiria
Original prediction
União de Leiria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.66 | 25.0% | 23.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.1% | 25.3% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 47.9% | 51.4% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.38 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
União de Leiria
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
União de Leiria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00