Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MVV · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC OSS 4-1 MVV
Original prediction
MVV
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 41.7% | 35.3% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.7% | 26.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 31.6% | 38.5% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
MVV
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
MVV has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC OSSLWLLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MVVWLLDW
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC OSSMVV
33.3Attack50.0
45.8Defence37.5
25.0Form66.7
36.3Power53.6
1.37xG1.61