1. FC Nürnbergvs
VfL Wolfsburg
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 10/10/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Nürnberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1. FC Nürnberg 4-4 VfL Wolfsburg
Original prediction
1. FC Nürnberg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 38.8% | 48.0% | 9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.2% | 22.6% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 37.0% | 29.5% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Nürnberg
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
1. FC Nürnberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 18 · GA 9 · avg 3.60/1.80