Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Noah · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (15%), 4-0 (14%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Noah 2-0 Van
Original prediction
FC Noah
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.05 | 89.0% | 84.3% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 10.63 | 8.8% | 10.0% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 40.89 | 2.3% | 5.7% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–015%
- 2.4–014%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
FC Noah
Probability
84.3%
Model confidence
84.3%
FC Noah has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC NoahWWWWW
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
VanWLLDL
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FC NoahVan
90.5Attack19.0
76.2Defence9.5
100.0Form19.0
89.3Power21.1
3.82xG0.53