Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Noah · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Noah 3-2 Gandzasar
Original prediction
FC Noah
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 84.8% | 71.8% | -12.9 pts |
| Draw | 8.29 | 11.0% | 16.2% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 21.56 | 4.2% | 12.0% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–011%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
FC Noah
Probability
71.8%
Model confidence
71.8%
FC Noah has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC NoahWWWLW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GandzasarLLLWL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
FC NoahGandzasar
86.7Attack40.0
80.0Defence20.0
100.0Form20.0
89.1Power29.3
3.14xG0.80