Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Noah · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Noah 4-0 Ararat
Original prediction
FC Noah
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 83.0% | 67.8% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 7.93 | 11.5% | 18.3% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 16.52 | 5.5% | 13.8% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
FC Noah
Probability
67.8%
Model confidence
67.8%
FC Noah has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC NoahWWLWD
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AraratLWLLW
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FC NoahArarat
75.0Attack25.0
75.0Defence33.3
100.0Form25.0
85.8Power31.6
2.47xG0.76