Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Luzern · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Luzern 2-1 FC Vaduz
Original prediction
FC Luzern
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 55.6% | 41.9% | -13.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.21 | 22.2% | 22.7% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 22.2% | 35.4% | 13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
FC Luzern
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
FC Luzern has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC LuzernDWWDL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FC VaduzWLDLL
GF 12 · GA 13 · avg 2.40/2.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
FC LuzernFC Vaduz
33.3Attack80.0
40.0Defence6.7
33.3Form20.0
38.7Power36.2
1.93xG2.02