Super LeagueSuper League
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 10:12
FC Luzern

FC Luzern

Home
WW
13
Full time
FC Thun

FC Thun

Away
L
Thermoplan Arena
GoalVio prediction
56% confidence
FC Luzern(56%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
FC Luzern
56%
Draw
25%
FC Thun
19%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
FC Luzern
73
FC Thun
73
Defence
FC Luzern
91
FC Thun
6
Momentum
FC Luzern
100
FC Thun
0
Danger (xG)
FC Luzern
1.80
FC Thun
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (FC Luzern)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (FC Thun)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (FC Luzern)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (FC Thun)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FC LuzernFC Luzern
WW
FC ThunFC Thun
L

Probability breakdown

56% confidence
FC Luzern56%
Draw25%
FC Thun19%

FC Luzern leads with 56% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

Match insights

FC Luzern head into this in Super League fixture at Thermoplan Arena in decent form (WW), while FC Thun arrive in mixed form (L). FC Luzern have a 100% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for FC Thun over 1 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. FC Luzern's strong attack (73/100) faces a vulnerable FC Thun defence (6/100), while FC Thun's attack is up against a watertight FC Luzern backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in FC Luzern's favour.

FC Luzern have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. FC Thun have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

There is no head-to-head data between FC Luzern and FC Thun in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects FC Luzern to win with 56% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: FC Luzern 5639%, Draw 2500%, FC Thun 1861%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Recent form

FC Luzern

FC Luzern

W
@ FC Winterthur
16 May 2026
30
W
vs FC Zurich
12 May 2026
10
FC Thun

FC Thun

L
vs BSC Young Boys
14 May 2026
23

Frequently asked questions

Who will win FC Luzern vs FC Thun?

GoalVio's model predicts FC Luzern to win with 56% confidence.

What is the predicted score for FC Luzern vs FC Thun?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in FC Luzern vs FC Thun?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Luzern vs FC Thun?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more