FC Luzernvs
FC Basel 1893
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Super League · 9/13/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Luzern · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Luzern 2-4 FC Basel 1893
Original prediction
FC Luzern
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 44.7% | 38.5% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.3% | 24.3% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.99 | 31.0% | 37.2% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
FC Luzern
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
FC Luzern has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 9 · GA 14 · avg 1.80/2.80