FC Luganovs
Servette FC
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Super League · 9/3/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Lugano 1-0 Servette FC
Original prediction
FC Lugano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 46.1% | 55.3% | 9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.7% | 23.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 28.2% | 21.6% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00