FC Luganovs
Hellas Verona
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/2/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hellas Verona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Lugano 1-3 Hellas Verona
Original prediction
Hellas Verona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.3% | 31.0% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.2% | 26.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.5% | 42.9% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Hellas Verona
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Hellas Verona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20