FC Luganovs
FK Crvena Zvezda
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Conference League · 10/15/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Lugano 3-2 FK Crvena Zvezda
Original prediction
FC Lugano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 41.4% | 45.3% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.3% | 27.2% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 32.3% | 27.5% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
GF 9 · GA 1 · avg 1.80/0.20