Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 4-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Lugano 4-0 FC Luzern
Original prediction
FC Lugano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 58.3% | 71.0% | 12.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 21.3% | 15.7% | -5.6 pts |
| Away | 4.56 | 20.4% | 13.4% | -7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.4–010%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
71.0%
Model confidence
71.0%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC LuganoLWWDW
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
FC LuzernLWLDW
GF 14 · GA 13 · avg 2.80/2.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
FC LuganoFC Luzern
100.0Attack63.0
74.1Defence33.3
92.6Form44.4
87.5Power47.9
3.88xG0.93