FC Luganovs
BSC Young Boys
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Super League · 9/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Lugano 2-2 BSC Young Boys
Original prediction
FC Lugano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 43.3% | 54.5% | 11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.9% | 21.2% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.9% | 24.3% | -8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.90 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–16%
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
54.5%
Model confidence
54.5%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 18 · GA 10 · avg 3.60/2.00