Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beşiktaş · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
FC Lugano are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Beşiktaş are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Beşiktaş hold a 63.0-point power-rating edge (21.5 v 84.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.8% in the UEFA Europa League, while Beşiktaş holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Beşiktaş
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Beşiktaş has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80