MeistriliigaMeistriliiga
Sunday, 19 July 202615:00Updated today
FC Levadia Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn

Home
W
vs
15:00
Tammeka

Tammeka

Away
LW
A. Le Coq Arena
GoalVio prediction
63% confidence
FC Levadia Tallinn(63%)
Most likely exact score2-0
Win probability
FC Levadia Tallinn
63%
Draw
22%
Tammeka
16%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
FC Levadia Tallinn
94
Tammeka
54
Defence
FC Levadia Tallinn
66
Tammeka
6
Momentum
FC Levadia Tallinn
100
Tammeka
50
Danger (xG)
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.70
Tammeka
1.35
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.67 xG for FC Levadia Tallinn and 1.26 xG for Tammeka — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.41), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.92 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. FC Levadia Tallinn's Attack Score (94) vs Tammeka's Defensive Stability (6) and Tammeka's attack (54) vs FC Levadia Tallinn's defence (66) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (FC Levadia Tallinn)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Tammeka)
1.35
avg per match
xG against (FC Levadia Tallinn)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Tammeka)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn
WWLDW
TammekaTammeka
LWWW

Probability breakdown

63% confidence
FC Levadia Tallinn63%
Draw22%
Tammeka16%

FC Levadia Tallinn leads with 63% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

FC Levadia Tallinn Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-0

FC Levadia Tallinn take on Tammeka in Meistriliiga.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC Levadia Tallinn against 1.26 for Tammeka — a marginal but consistent advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. FC Levadia Tallinn's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 60% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record FC Levadia Tallinn have won 9 of the last 10 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.

Why GoalVio backs this

FC Levadia Tallinn have won 9 of the last 10 meetings between these sides. Historical head-to-head dominance captures tactical matchup advantages that aggregate stats can miss — when one team consistently finds ways to beat the same opponent, that pattern is a meaningful signal in its own right.

Biggest risk: Tammeka have won 4 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If Tammeka carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Tammeka are in decent form with 4 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

FC Levadia Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn

W
vs Caernarfon Town
16 Jul 2026
50
W
@ Trans Narva
4 Jul 2026
31
L
vs Flora Tallinn
28 Jun 2026
12
D
vs Kalju Nomme
20 Jun 2026
11
W
@ Paide
17 May 2026
31
Tammeka

Tammeka

L
@ Vaprus
11 Jul 2026
15
W
vs Laagri
5 Jul 2026
21
W
vs Trans Narva
21 Jun 2026
10
W
vs Nõmme United
15 May 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka?

GoalVio's model predicts FC Levadia Tallinn to win with 63% confidence.

What is the predicted score for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-0.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more