UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League
Thursday, 30 July 202617:30Updated today
FC Levadia Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn

Home
W
vs
17:30
IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg

Away
WLL
A. Le Coq Arena
GoalVio prediction
50% confidence
FC Levadia Tallinn(50%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
FC Levadia Tallinn
50%
Draw
25%
IFK Goteborg
25%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
FC Levadia Tallinn
94
IFK Goteborg
34
Defence
FC Levadia Tallinn
66
IFK Goteborg
17
Momentum
FC Levadia Tallinn
100
IFK Goteborg
33
Danger (xG)
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.70
IFK Goteborg
0.00
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.79 xG for FC Levadia Tallinn and 1.03 xG for IFK Goteborg — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with IFK Goteborg holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 2.81 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. FC Levadia Tallinn's Attack Score (94) vs IFK Goteborg's Defensive Stability (17) and IFK Goteborg's attack (34) vs FC Levadia Tallinn's defence (66) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (FC Levadia Tallinn)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (IFK Goteborg)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (FC Levadia Tallinn)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (IFK Goteborg)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn
WWLDW
IFK GoteborgIFK Goteborg
WLL

Probability breakdown

50% confidence
FC Levadia Tallinn50%
Draw25%
IFK Goteborg25%

FC Levadia Tallinn leads with 50% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

FC Levadia Tallinn Favoured — Model Projects 2-1

FC Levadia Tallinn take on IFK Goteborg in UEFA Europa Conference League.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC Levadia Tallinn against 1.03 for IFK Goteborg — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. FC Levadia Tallinn's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 62% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk IFK Goteborg have won 1 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While FC Levadia Tallinn carry the stronger underlying metrics, IFK Goteborg's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

FC Levadia Tallinn are generating a clear xG advantage — 1.79 projected against 1.03 for IFK Goteborg. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.76 is the clearest signal in the model that FC Levadia Tallinn are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. FC Levadia Tallinn are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

FC Levadia Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn

W
vs Caernarfon Town
16 Jul 2026
50
W
@ Trans Narva
4 Jul 2026
31
L
vs Flora Tallinn
28 Jun 2026
12
D
vs Kalju Nomme
20 Jun 2026
11
W
@ Paide
17 May 2026
31
IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg

W
vs IF Brommapojkarna
17 Jul 2026
21
xG 0.0
L
@ Malmo FF
12 Jul 2026
04
xG 0.0
L
vs AIK Stockholm
5 Jul 2026
12
xG 0.0

Frequently asked questions

Who will win FC Levadia Tallinn vs IFK Goteborg?

GoalVio's model predicts FC Levadia Tallinn to win with 50% confidence.

What is the predicted score for FC Levadia Tallinn vs IFK Goteborg?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs IFK Goteborg?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Levadia Tallinn vs IFK Goteborg?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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