Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lahti · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Lahti are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Ilves are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lahti hold a 4.2-point power-rating edge (52.7 v 48.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.0% in the Veikkausliiga, while Lahti holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lahti
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
14.0%
Lahti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00