Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lahti · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Lahti are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Mariehamn are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lahti hold a 30.9-point power-rating edge (52.7 v 21.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 18.9% in the Veikkausliiga, while Lahti holds the strongest overall chance at 75% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lahti
Probability
74.5%
Model confidence
18.9%
Lahti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00