FC Jerusalemvs
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Jerusalem · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Jerusalem 0-1 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
Original prediction
FC Jerusalem
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 48.9% | 41.8% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.6% | 27.7% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.64 | 24.5% | 30.5% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
FC Jerusalem
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
FC Jerusalem has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60