FC Jerusalemvs
Hapoel Sderot
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Jerusalem · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Jerusalem 0-5 Hapoel Sderot
Original prediction
FC Jerusalem
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 18:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.3% | 47.5% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.1% | 25.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 28.7% | 27.1% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
FC Jerusalem
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
FC Jerusalem has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60