FC Ingolstadt 04vs
Rot-weiss Essen
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rot-weiss Essen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Ingolstadt 04 1-0 Rot-weiss Essen
Original prediction
Rot-weiss Essen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.18 | 28.5% | 24.4% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.5% | 21.3% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 47.0% | 54.3% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Rot-weiss Essen
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
Rot-weiss Essen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40