FC Ingolstadt 04vs
MSV Duisburg
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 10/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MSV Duisburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Ingolstadt 04 2-1 MSV Duisburg
Original prediction
MSV Duisburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 30.4% | 17.9% | -12.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.1% | 18.7% | -7.4 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.5% | 63.4% | 19.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
MSV Duisburg
Probability
63.4%
Model confidence
63.4%
MSV Duisburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40