Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
FC Gießen are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDDLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Fernwald are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 9.7-point power-rating edge (39.1 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.7% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20