Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
FC Gießen are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Fernwald are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 9.7-point power-rating edge (39.1 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.7% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80