Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
FC Gießen are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Fernwald are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 9.7-point power-rating edge (39.1 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.7% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00