FC Dnepr Mogilevvs
ML Vitebsk
COMPLETEDBelarus · Premier League · 9/13/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ML Vitebsk · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: FC Dnepr Mogilev 0-2 ML Vitebsk, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Dnepr Mogilev 1-1 ML Vitebsk
Original prediction
ML Vitebsk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.81 | 11.7% | 13.9% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.58 | 20.0% | 20.3% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.34 | 68.3% | 65.9% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Projected Score
FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–2 ML Vitebsk
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
ML Vitebsk
Probability
65.9%
Model confidence
65.9%
ML Vitebsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40