FC Dallasvs
Sporting Kansas City
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/6/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Dallas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (11%), 4-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Dallas 4-3 Sporting Kansas City
Original prediction
FC Dallas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 66.6% | 80.0% | 13.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.98 | 18.8% | 12.0% | -6.8 pts |
| Away | 6.42 | 14.6% | 8.0% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–011%
- 2.4–09%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
FC Dallas
Probability
80.0%
Model confidence
80.0%
FC Dallas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 15 · avg 2.00/3.00
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00