FC Dallasvs
Portland Timbers
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/13/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Dallas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Dallas 2-1 Portland Timbers
Original prediction
FC Dallas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 52.9% | 44.3% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.12 | 22.8% | 25.9% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 3.87 | 24.3% | 29.8% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–17%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
FC Dallas
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
FC Dallas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 15 · avg 2.60/3.00
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00