FC Cartagenavs
Real Murcia
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/7/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Murcia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Cartagena 1-0 Real Murcia
Original prediction
Real Murcia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.0% | 31.6% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 30.5% | 30.6% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 33.5% | 37.8% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.0–114%
Predicted outcome
Real Murcia
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Real Murcia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80