FC Cartagenavs
Águilas
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/3/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: FC Cartagena 0-0 Águilas, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Cartagena 4-1 Águilas
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 43.1% | 37.4% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 31.1% | 32.3% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.52 | 25.8% | 30.4% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Projected Score
FC Cartagena 0–0 Águilas
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.3%
Model confidence
37.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC CartagenaLDDWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ÁguilasLDWLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
FC CartagenaÁguilas
32.5Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
51.9Power50.0
0.88xG0.76