FC Basel 1893vs
FC Lugano
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Super League · 9/6/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC Lugano
Original prediction
FC Lugano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 33.5% | 28.4% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.7% | 23.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 40.9% | 47.7% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 12 · avg 2.80/2.40
GF 16 · GA 4 · avg 3.20/0.80