FC Augsburgvs
Union Berlin
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/24/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Augsburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Augsburg 1-1 Union Berlin
Original prediction
FC Augsburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 52.6% | 66.3% | 13.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 23.5% | 17.4% | -6.1 pts |
| Away | 3.98 | 23.9% | 16.3% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.3–08%
Predicted outcome
FC Augsburg
Probability
66.3%
Model confidence
66.3%
FC Augsburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 13 · avg 2.20/2.60
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00