FC Augsburgvs
Bayern München
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayern München · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayern München
Original prediction
Bayern München
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 12.30 | 7.8% | 27.8% | 20.1 pts |
| Draw | 8.65 | 11.0% | 20.8% | 9.8 pts |
| Away | 1.18 | 81.2% | 51.3% | -29.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 7.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-29.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Bayern München
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Bayern München has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 18 · GA 2 · avg 3.60/0.40