FC Augsburgvs
Bayer Leverkusen
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Augsburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen
Original prediction
FC Augsburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.75 | 25.4% | 41.9% | 16.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 23.6% | 24.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.87 | 51.0% | 33.8% | -17.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
FC Augsburg
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
FC Augsburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20