Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Astana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: FC Astana 1-0 Kaspiy, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Astana 2-2 Kaspiy
Original prediction
FC Astana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 67.4% | 65.6% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.61 | 19.8% | 21.3% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 7.13 | 12.8% | 13.1% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.60 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Projected Score
FC Astana 1–0 Kaspiy
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
FC Astana
Probability
65.6%
Model confidence
65.6%
FC Astana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC AstanaWLWLW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
KaspiyWWLLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FC AstanaKaspiy
54.3Attack35.8
66.7Defence54.3
63.0Form39.5
62.1Power45.9
1.67xG0.62