Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Astana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: FC Astana 1-0 Kaisar, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Astana 0-0 Kaisar
Original prediction
FC Astana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 63.4% | 62.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.3% | 22.5% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 5.95 | 15.2% | 14.6% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Projected Score
FC Astana 1–0 Kaisar
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
FC Astana
Probability
62.8%
Model confidence
62.8%
FC Astana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC AstanaDWLWL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
KaisarLLDWL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FC AstanaKaisar
54.8Attack28.6
65.5Defence53.6
61.9Form28.6
61.5Power39.8
1.75xG0.50