FC Astanavs
Kairat Almaty
COMPLETEDKazakhstan · Premier League · 9/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kairat Almaty · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Astana 1-0 Kairat Almaty
Original prediction
Kairat Almaty
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 34.7% | 27.9% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.4% | 26.3% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 37.9% | 45.9% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Kairat Almaty
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Kairat Almaty has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40