UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League
Thursday, 16 July 2026Last updated 10:12
FC Astana

FC Astana

Home
LW
14
Full time
Dinamo Tirana

Dinamo Tirana

Away
WL
Astana Arena
GoalVio prediction
66% confidence
FC Astana(66%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction missed— Result: Dinamo Tirana
Win probability
FC Astana
66%
Draw
21%
Dinamo Tirana
13%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
FC Astana
34
Dinamo Tirana
73
Defence
FC Astana
27
Dinamo Tirana
66
Momentum
FC Astana
50
Dinamo Tirana
50
Danger (xG)
FC Astana
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (FC Astana)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Dinamo Tirana)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (FC Astana)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Dinamo Tirana)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FC AstanaFC Astana
LWWWD
Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana
WLWW

Probability breakdown

66% confidence
FC Astana66%
Draw21%
Dinamo Tirana13%

FC Astana leads with 66% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

FC Astana head into this in UEFA Europa Conference League fixture at Astana Arena in mixed form (LW), while Dinamo Tirana arrive in mixed form (WL). FC Astana have a 50% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 50% for Dinamo Tirana over 2 games.

Tactically, Dinamo Tirana hold the edge. Their strong attack (73/100) is pitted against a vulnerable FC Astana defence (27/100), while FC Astana's attack faces a solid Dinamo Tirana backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

FC Astana have won 2 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game at home. Dinamo Tirana have been excellent on the road, winning all 2 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per away game.

The last 2 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, averaging 3.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects FC Astana to win with 66% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: FC Astana 6575%, Draw 2135%, Dinamo Tirana 1290%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

FC Astana 1Draws 01 Dinamo Tirana
Avg goals: 3.0BTTS in 1/2
16 Jul 2026
FC Astana
L14
Dinamo Tirana
9 Jul 2026
FC Astana
W10
Dinamo Tirana

Recent form

FC Astana

FC Astana

L
vs Dinamo Tirana
16 Jul 2026
14
W
vs Aktobe
12 Jul 2026
32
W
@ Dinamo Tirana
9 Jul 2026
10
W
vs Zhenys
3 Jul 2026
10
D
@ Zhenys
28 Jun 2026
22
Dinamo Tirana

Dinamo Tirana

W
@ FC Astana
16 Jul 2026
41
L
vs FC Astana
9 Jul 2026
01
W
@ Vllaznia Shkodër
16 May 2026
10
W
vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
13 May 2026
32

Frequently asked questions

Who will win FC Astana vs Dinamo Tirana?

GoalVio's model predicts FC Astana to win with 66% confidence.

What is the predicted score for FC Astana vs Dinamo Tirana?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in FC Astana vs Dinamo Tirana?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Astana vs Dinamo Tirana?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more