Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 10:02
FC Aarau

FC Aarau

Home
DW
21
Full time
Union Berlin

Union Berlin

Away
DD
GoalVio prediction
Friendly match
Very hard to predict

Friendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.

Union Berlin33%
FC Aarau33%
Draw33%
Most likely exact score1-1
Win probability
FC Aarau
33%
Draw
33%
Union Berlin
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
FC Aarau
73
Union Berlin
34
Defence
FC Aarau
46
Union Berlin
66
Momentum
FC Aarau
67
Union Berlin
33
Danger (xG)
FC Aarau
1.80
Union Berlin
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (FC Aarau)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Union Berlin)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (FC Aarau)
1.35
avg per match
xG against (Union Berlin)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FC AarauFC Aarau
DW
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
DDW

Probability breakdown

33% confidence
FC Aarau33%
Draw33%
Union Berlin33%

Union Berlin leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

FC Aarau head into this in Friendlies Clubs fixture in mixed form (DW), while Union Berlin arrive in mixed form (DD). FC Aarau have a 50% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Union Berlin over 2 games.

The model rates FC Aarau's attack at 73/100 against a 66/100 Union Berlin defence, and Union Berlin's attack at 34/100 against a 46/100 FC Aarau backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

FC Aarau have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home match. Union Berlin have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between FC Aarau and Union Berlin in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects a draw with 33% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-1. Win probabilities: FC Aarau 3333%, Draw 3333%, Union Berlin 3334%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

FC Aarau

FC Aarau

D
vs Yverdon Sport
15 May 2026
22
W
@ FC Vaduz
11 May 2026
21
Union Berlin

Union Berlin

D
@ FC Winterthur
17 Jul 2026
11
D
@ Chemnitzer FC
9 Jul 2026
11
W
vs FC Augsburg
16 May 2026
40

Frequently asked questions

Who will win FC Aarau vs Union Berlin?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 33% confidence.

What is the predicted score for FC Aarau vs Union Berlin?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-1.

Will both teams score in FC Aarau vs Union Berlin?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Aarau vs Union Berlin?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more