FC Aarauvs
Étoile Carouge
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Challenge League · 10/24/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Aarau · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Aarau 1-2 Étoile Carouge
Original prediction
FC Aarau
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.6% | 52.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.4% | 24.4% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.96 | 23.0% | 22.9% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
FC Aarau
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
FC Aarau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20