Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Aarau · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Aarau 2-2 SC Kriens
Original prediction
FC Aarau
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 56.1% | 41.3% | -14.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 21.8% | 24.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.13 | 22.0% | 34.7% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
FC Aarau
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
FC Aarau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC AarauWDWLD
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
SC KriensLDWWL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
FC AarauSC Kriens
52.4Attack47.6
42.9Defence61.9
52.4Form47.6
52.1Power52.6
1.39xG1.46