FC Aarauvs
Rapperswil
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Challenge League · 9/4/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Aarau · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Aarau 3-2 Rapperswil
Original prediction
FC Aarau
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.8% | 51.5% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 22.0% | 22.9% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.30 | 21.2% | 25.6% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
FC Aarau
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
FC Aarau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60