Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Aarau · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
FC Aarau are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Baden are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (LWW), averaging 1.67 scored and 2.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Aarau hold a 15.0-point power-rating edge (43.8 v 28.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 68.2% in the Challenge League, while FC Aarau holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
FC Aarau
Probability
68.2%
Model confidence
68.2%
FC Aarau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.67/2.67