GGOALVIO

FC 1906 Erlensee logoFC 1906 ErlenseevsFernwald logoFernwald

COMPLETED

Germany · Oberliga - Hessen · 9/16/2023, 3:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

FC 1906 Erlensee are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Fernwald are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 14.4-point power-rating edge (34.5 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.6% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Fernwald

Probability

50.6%

Model confidence

50.6%

Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

FC 1906 ErlenseeDLWLL

GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FernwaldWDWLW

GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC 1906 ErlenseeFernwald
41.2Attack41.7
30.4Defence58.3
26.5Form41.7
34.5Power48.8
1.29xG2.02
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