FC 08 Homburgvs
Freiburg II
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - SudWest · 10/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Freiburg II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC 08 Homburg 2-1 Freiburg II
Original prediction
Freiburg II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.1% | 32.4% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.3% | 23.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.6% | 44.1% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Freiburg II
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Freiburg II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20