FBK Karlstadvs
Vasalund
COMPLETEDSweden · Ettan - Norra · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vasalund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FBK Karlstad 2-1 Vasalund
Original prediction
Vasalund
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 42.9% | 36.0% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.7% | 25.8% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 31.4% | 38.2% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Vasalund
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Vasalund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40