FBK Karlstadvs
Piteå
COMPLETEDSweden · Ettan - Norra · 8/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FBK Karlstad · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FBK Karlstad 4-3 Piteå
Original prediction
FBK Karlstad
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 59.0% | 40.5% | -18.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 22.8% | 25.9% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 4.98 | 18.2% | 33.5% | 15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
FBK Karlstad
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
FBK Karlstad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40